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the outcome and that the smart trade is to just follow the insider moneyBut that trade — following the smart money — almost never works for retail investors since the smart money never advertises its exits If you were lucky enough to be in on this trade a few weeks ago then you’re sitting on a very nice profit right now But my guess is that it’s over now and that if the stock has peaked the Frannie preferreds aren’t going to stay at their current much longerS. according to HSBC China's 8-percent growth rate maynot slow down this year The IMF reports that China is consumingsome 40 percent of base metals 23 percent of agriculturalproducts and 20 percent of non-renewable energy resourcesRenewed growth in China -- 82 percent according to the 2013IMF estimate last week -- will translate into heavier demand forores oil coal and agricultural goods The rebound may havealready begun Factory sector growth in China hit a two-yearhigh this month says HSBCEric Weigel director of research for the Leuthold Group inMinneapolis says you have to be careful with how you play the"China effect" Buying baskets of commodities through managedindex funds can skew results because of the funds' weightingsThe Dow Jones/UBS index for example has twice as much investedin agricultural commodities than the rival S&P/Goldman SachsCommodities Index which has more than 60 percent of itsholdings in energyIt's hard to execute a commodities strategy using basketssays Weigel "From 2003 through 2007 that strategy did wellthen fell apart" This was the nasty little secret ofcommodities which were supposed to move in the oppositedirection of stocks providing some diversificationIndeed when worldwide demand for raw materials plummetedafter the 2008 meltdown commodities followed stocks whichdropped 37 percent The S&P/GSCI got punched even more --falling 46 percent that year This high correlation blindsidedmany investors like myself who were looking at historicalnumbers that suggested commodities moved in the oppositedirection of stocksWhat's the best way to avoid falling into lockstep withstocks while using commodities as an inflation or a dollarhedge Investing in a popular fund such as the PowerShares DBCommodity Index Tracking ETF has not worked recentlyAlthough it holds more than half of its portfolio in petroleumproducts it has returned 4 percent over the past three yearsthrough 2012 The fund was hurt by its large exposure to energyas wholesale prices in that sector fellAn alternative such as the iShares GSCI Commodity-IndexedTrust is similar investing nearly 70 percent of itsportfolio in energy futures about 20 percent in agriculture andlivestock and 10 percent in industrial and precious metals Ithas gained 122 percent in the last yearTo boost your returns a more focused approach might be abetter way to play specific trends such as the increased use ofmetals and petroleum products in AsiaThe Energy Select Sector SPDR focuses on majorpetroleum producers pipelines and service companies 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